WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK , APRIL 2018
FOR UPSC, SSC, RAILWAYS, BANKINGS, CAT, NDA, CDS AND OTHER NATIONAL & STATE LEVEL COMPETITIVE EXAMS.preface
The analysis and projections contained in the World Economic Outlook are integral elements of the IMF’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries, of developments in international financial markets, and of the global economic system. The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through its consultations with member countries. These consultations are carried out in particular by the IMF’s area departments—namely, the African Department, Asia and Pacific Department, European Department, Middle East and Central Asia Department, and Western Hemisphere Department— together with the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department; the Monetary and Capital Markets Department; and the Fiscal Affairs Department. The analysis in this report was coordinated in the Research Department under the general direction of Maurice Obstfeld, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research. The project was directed by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Deputy Director, Research Department; Oya Celasun, Division Chief, Research Department; and Helge Berger, Assistant Director, Research Department and Head of the IMF’s Spillover Task Force. The primary contributors to this report were Aqib Aslam, Christian Bogmans, Wenjie Chen, Federica Coelli, Johannes Eugster, Francesco Grigoli, Bertrand Gruss, Giang Ho, Florence Jaumotte, Zsóka Kóczán, Toh Kuan, Nan Li, Weicheng Lian, Akito Matsumoto, Malhar Nabar, Natalija Novta, Carolina Osorio Buitron, Roberto Piazza, Yu Shi, Petia Topalova, and Rachel Yuting Fan.
Other contributors include Jorge Alvarez, Gavin Asdorian, Felicia Belostecinic, Olivier Bizimana, Patrick Blagrave, John Bluedorn, Luisa Calixto, Benjamin Carton, Diego Cerdeiro, Sophia Chen, Pankhuri Dutt, Angela Espiritu, Sung Eun Jung, Emilio Fernandez Corugedo, Chanpheng Fizzarotti, Gregg Forte, Khondoker Haider, Meron Haile, Mandy Hemmati, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Ava Hong, Keiko Honjo, Benjamin Hunt, Hao Jiang, Christopher Johns, Rahel Kidane, Lama Kiyasseh, Jungjin Lee, Yiqun Li, Davide Malacrino, Joannes Mongardini, Mico Mrkaic, Daniela Muhaj, Susanna Mursula, Rachel J. Nam, Cynthia Nyanchama Nyakeri, Emory Oakes, Ilse Peirtsegaele, Evgenia Pugacheva, Marshall Reinsdorf, Daniel Rivera Greenwood, Kadir Tanyeri, Nicholas Tong, Menexenia Tsaroucha, Ke Wang, Shan Wang, Jilun Xing, Yuan Zeng, Fan Zhang, Qiaoqiao Zhang, and Huiyuan Zhao. Joseph Procopio from the Communications Department led the editorial and production team for the report with support from Linda Kean, Christine Ebrahimzadeh, James Unwin, Lucy Scott Morales, Angela White, and Vector Talent Resources. The analysis has benefited from comments and suggestions by staff members from other IMF departments, as well as by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on April 2, 2018. However, both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.
Foreword
The global economic upswing that began around mid-2016 has become broader and stronger. This new World Economic Outlook report projects that advanced economies as a group will continue to expand above their potential growth rates this year and next before decelerating, while growth in emerging market and developing economies will rise before leveling off. For most countries, current favorable growth rates will not last. Policymakers should seize this opportunity to bolster growth, make it more durable, and equip their governments better to counter the next downturn. Global growth seems on track to reach 3.9 percent this year and next, substantially above our October forecast. Helping to drive this output acceleration is faster growth in the euro area, Japan, China, and the United States, all of which grew above expectations last year, along with some recovery in commodity exporters.
Along with China, several other emerging market and developing economies will also do better this year than in our past projections—that group includes Brazil, Mexico, and emerging Europe. The aggregate gains for this country group are, however, weighed down by sharp downward revisions for a few countries in the grip of civil strife, notably Libya, Venezuela, and Yemen. Growing trade and investment continue as notable factors powering the global upswing. Growth this broad based and strong has not been seen since the world’s initial sharp 2010 bounce back from the financial crisis of 2008–09. The synchronized expansion will help to dispel some remaining legacies of the crisis by speeding the exit from unconventional monetary policies in advanced economies, encouraging investment, and healing labor market scars. Other aftereffects of the crisis seem more durable, however, including higher debt levels worldwide and widespread public skepticism about policymakers’ capacity and willingness to generate robust and inclusive growth. That skepticism will only be reinforced—with negative political consequences down the road—if economic policy does not rise to the challenge of enacting reforms and building fiscal buffers. Success in such efforts would strengthen medium-term growth,
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Book Name: World economic outlook
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Language: English
Pages: 302
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